Why Kevin Faulconer Has a Chance, But Shouldn’t

Despite a large disadvantage in voter registration numbers, Republican Kevin Faulconer remains the frontrunner in the November 19 mayoral special election.

By Andy Cohen San Diego is sort of an odd duck politically. In a state that’s as deep blue as any in the nation, San Diego stands out as one of the few hopes for Republicans to control a major city in the most populous state in the Union. Consider: California has 53 seats in the United States House of Representatives, yet only 15 of them are held by Republicans (two from San Diego County). In 2010, Democrats swept every statewide office by a wide margin. Democrats achieved near supermajorities in both the State Assembly and State Senate, falling only a few seats short of essentially neutering state Republicans. As of 2012, consider state level Republicans neutered—and yet the Democrats have shown a remarkable propensity to work with their colleagues from across the aisle, despite the fact that with supermajorities in both chambers, they really don’t have to. The State Senate is currently occupied by 28 Democrats and 12 Republicans. San Diego is a part of four different Senate districts, split evenly with two Democrats and two Republicans. In the State Assembly, Democrats currently hold a 53-25 advantage over Republicans (with two seats vacant). San Diego County contains six different Assembly districts, evenly split at three apiece.